China’s Investment and Rate of Return on Capital Revisited
唐涯 徐建国 张勋
[ 2017-03-05 ]

中国金融四十人论坛工作论文系列

CF40 Working Paper Series
NO. CF40WP2017007(总第60期)

China’s Investment and Rate of Return on Capital Revisited

唐涯、徐建国、张勋

2017年03月05日


  Abstract:We revisit China’s suspected overinvestment problem by examining the rate of return on capital from two perspectives. First, we find that two existing methods of estimating the rate of return generate conflicting results, and we succeed in reconciling them. Our revised estimates show that the rate of return rose sharply from 1998 to 2014, which helps explain the strong investment drive. Second, we explore what caused the rate of return to rise. We find the explanation lies mainly with the long-term factor of rising total factor productivity but that the short-term cyclical factor of low real interest rates has also contributed.

 

  Key words:Overinvestment; Capital Return; Total Factor Productivity; Real Interest Rate; Financial Development

 

 

张勋,CF40·青年论坛会员、北京师范大学国民核算研究院讲师。)

 

 

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